Joe Biden’s chances of completing his first term as US president are improving – but betting sites don’t expect him to fight the next election.
Biden is enduring the worst start to a presidency in the modern era. None of the past 12 presidents have endured poll ratings as low as 40.5% after 500 days in the White House.
Biden’s disapproval rating now sits at 59%, with the Covid-19 pandemic and the economy being the two big factors in his drop in popularity. America’s botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last year and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has added fuel to concerns in America that the country’s international influence is waning.
For a president who won the 2020 US election by more than seven million votes, Biden has so far failed to live up to the expectations of Americans in the post-Donald Trump era.
And bookmakers now believe the 79-year-old will not run again in 2024, when Trump is likely to spearhead the Republicans’ charge to recapture the White House.
Joe Biden Odds
According to political betting sites, Biden has a 68% of completing his first four years in office. Those odds have crept up a couple of percentage points over the last few days, but have generally lingered around this mark for months.
It is unlikely the president would step down from office unless he suffers a health scare, and the Democrats aren’t expected to mount a mutiny. What’s more, even if the GOP wins majorities in the House and Senate this autumn, the possibility of impeachment proceedings playing out in Congress remains low.
With Biden expected to see out his four years, the focus among many bookmakers is on upcoming elections. The November 2022 midterms will mark an important milestone for the Biden presidency. The Dems are 1/3 to lose both House and Senate majorities – an outcome that would severely restrict the Biden administration’s ability to pass legislation.
Then there is the focus on the 2024 US election, which is already gathering momentum. Trump will almost certainly head the GOP ticket, even though his fundraising efforts are stalling and a number of his midterm picks have been overlooked in Republican primaries.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
Recommended: free online slots no download or registration
Will Biden Run In 2024?
The 2024 US election odds suggest Biden will not be on the election ticket. He is 4/6 to step away from frontline politics once his first term is over, and cede responsibility for retaining a Democratic president in the White House to someone else.
Indeed, Biden remains the 5/1 outside to win the next election, with Trump still the firm favourite at 5/2. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (6/1) and former VP Mike Pence (14/1) appear the only viable Republican alternatives to Trump.
Meanwhile, if current VP Kamala Harris (9/1) doesn’t get the nod to spearhead the Dems’ ticket then Pete Buttigieg (20/1) could emerge as the surprise pick to take on the Trump machine.
How the chips fall remains to be seen but it’s evident the Democrats are scrambling for approval ratings right now. Losing the midterms is one thing but suffer a heavy defeat and further scrutiny will be placed on Biden’s leadership heading into the 2024 election.